Rainmaker 2026 Outlook

Greg Martin, Managing Director at Rainmaker Securities

Glen Anderson, CEO and Founder at Rainmaker Securities

2025 was a banner year for the pre-IPO trading market as trading volume on the Rainmaker platform swelled to new highs, and buyers who had been on the sidelines most of the last few years, returned to a risk on stance. As markets continue to evolve against a backdrop of economic recalibration, shifting capital flows, and AI-driven disruption, 2026 is poised to be a defining year for late-stage private companies and their investors. Rainmaker Securities’ Glen Anderson, Founder and CEO, and Greg Martin, Managing Director, share their perspectives on what to expect in the year ahead.

A (Re)Reawakening of the IPO Market

The momentum the IPO market built in the middle of the year quickly subsided in the fourth quarter, largely stalled by the uncertainty stemming from the late-year government shutdown. We believe however that the pause in activity was transitory. We’re expecting a solid IPO resurgence in the early part of 2026. Dozens of companies that were ready to go public in 2025 hit pause due to the shutdown, but we’ll likely see that pent-up demand come to market in the first half of 2026.

With the liquidity window reopening and a favorable technical backdrop heading into 2026, we believe the IPO market is ripe for a comeback, with pre-IPO companies that have been staying private ready to make their public debut. We anticipate a wave of high-profile listings, including names such as Lambda, Canva, OpenAI, Rippling, Deel, Fanatics, and Databricks, to signal their intention to IPO in 2026.

AI: From Enterprise Obsession to End-Consumer Impact

Over the past few years companies have poured massive amounts of capital into AI with the goal of future-proofing their businesses and capitalizing on the potentially massive revenue opportunity if this new technology. However, we believe AI has reached a point where 2026 will mark the transition from AI experimentation to corporate customers seeing measurable impact. Investors and the public markets alike are increasingly asking: What is the ROI of these AI investments and when will it begin to show up? We expect 2026 to be a pivotal year for assessing this question.

As opposed to the buying frenzy at any price we have seen with AI stocks over the past few years, the AI winners in 2026 will be determined by more traditional metrics of value: real adoption, clear monetization, and products that deliver tangible benefits to users. Companies unable to demonstrate end-user benefit may face churn and spending pullback, while those creating visible consumer and enterprise productivity gains will emerge as market leaders.

As this plays out, valuations will recalibrate around performance rather than promise, and the narrative will shift from “AI potential” to “AI return.”

The Evolving Value Proposition for Pre-IPO Shares

Private equity and venture capital is facing a productivity and liquidity challenge. Despite record levels of dry powder, exit opportunities remain constrained, leaving LPs increasingly impatient for capital to be returned.  In response, these firms are pursuing more creative liquidity strategies, including NAV-based lending, continuation funds, and structured secondary transactions.

At the same time, the long-standing assumption that private equity and venture capital reliably outperforms public markets is being questioned. Through the middle of 2025, the S&P has outpaced broad PE/VC benchmarks on a rolling 10-year period.

This combination of weaker relative performance and delayed liquidity is slowly reshaping investor behavior. Certain LPs and ultra-high-net-worth individuals are reassessing whether traditional PE vehicles still warrant the same allocation levels. Rather than committing capital to pooled funds, these investors are increasingly seeking direct exposure through the private secondary market, targeting individual private companies where they have strong conviction.

This shift raises a pivotal question: Are we approaching a tipping point where disillusionment with traditional PE performance, combined with constrained liquidity, accelerates direct participation in the private secondary market? For many investors, platforms like Rainmaker may represent not just an alternative, but the next evolution for access to private investments.

The Maturation of the Private Market

The pre-IPO market is rapidly evolving from a niche liquidity tool into a key component of the broader capital markets and wealth management ecosystem. Broker-dealers and financial institutions now view pre-IPO access as a meaningful lever in both client acquisition and retention.

This is reflected in Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab expanding into the pre-IPO space through acquisitions. In our view, these moves serve dual purposes: it gives priority clients streamlined access to well-known late-stage companies that can be difficult to access, and it creates direct relationships with founders, employees and early shareholders ahead of liquidity events who may transaction to wealth management clients.

These individuals are on the cusp of significant wealth creation, and represent a captive audience of high-value prospects for the firms’ wealth management and private banking businesses.

Conclusion

As public markets reopen, AI adoption becomes more measurable, and investor expectations realign, 2026 will mark a turning point for the private market ecosystem. Liquidity pressures and performance scrutiny are accelerating the shift toward direct participation in pre-IPO opportunities. In this environment, platforms like Rainmaker are positioned at the center of a more transparent, flexible, and investor-driven private market landscape.