Venture secondaries just crossed $112 billion—right before three mega-IPOs change everything. And for the first time, retail investors are invited.

The US venture secondary market just reached an annualized value of $112.2 billion and surpassed public listings. It is a milestone worth celebrating, but one that won’t last long.

The same three companies that drove much of the secondary market’s explosive growth are now preparing to go public. What happens to a $112 billion market when its most valuable constituents leave?

In this note, we size the concentration risk posed by SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic’s mega-IPOs to venture secondaries, especially as the top 20 names account for 81.1% of secondary trading value, according to Hiive. When these companies go public, their returns will be held in lockup, then directed toward addressing venture’s four-year distribution deficit before any capital meaningfully recycles back into secondaries. The vacancy will be real, and the recovery will take time…Read Full Article