Arm IPO Is Helping to Revive the Market for Pre-Offer Investing
  • Arm’s multi-billion dollar IPO looks set to be year’s largest

  • Demand for companies prior to listing reaches $1.4 billion

Arm Holdings Ltd.’s multi-billion dollar initial public offering, which is set to launch in a week, is helping to revive interest in one small, battered corner of the financial market: stakes in companies that are set to go public soon.

Buying interest, or bids for so-called late-stage private stakes, has risen to about $1.4 billion from $1 billion at the depth of the stock market correction last year, according to Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates such transactions…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
The State of the IPO Market

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Expect broader re-opening in 4Q23 and 1H24, notes Greg Martin. He discusses the state of the IPO market. He talks about how the IPO bar is still high where it has to beat 5-6% risk-free return, strong growth and profitability metrics, and the scale needs to be $200M+ reoccurring revenue. He goes over some tailwinds for the IPO market including inflation lowering, stabilization of rates, and strong recent performance of tech stocks. Some notable potential IPOs include Instacart, Turo, Databricks, Stripe, and Chime. Finally, he looks at the outlook for tech IPO. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Ken Anderson
Investor Says $150 Billion SpaceX Valuation Seems Too Good to Be True

"It's hard to bet against Elon," but "there's a lot of leaps of faith you need to make about SpaceX."

SpaceX, Elon Musk's private space exploration company, was recently valued at $150 billion, making it the most valuable private corporation in the U.S. The company in July had an arrangement with investors to sell up to $750 million of stock at $81 per share, up from its last stock price of $77.

SpaceX recently told investors, per The Information, that it expects to see revenue of $8 billion in 2023, a number that would just about double the revenue the company saw in 2022.

But amid these soaring valuations, Greg Martin, the co-founder and managing director of Rainmaker Securities, thinks the company might be a bit overvalued, though he added that it is tough to bet against Musk…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
TechCrunch+ Roundup: Generative AI marketing, European edtech report, falling fintech valuations

Maintaining a full content pipeline is a laborious, subjective process, and with so many people involved, it can be hard to remain data-driven.

Generative AI tools speed up this work dramatically: Once a system is trained on your content, it will churn out keywords and ideas by the bushel, but human beings still need to separate the wheat from the chaff.

In a detailed TC+ post, Nick Zamanov, director of business development at Cyber Switching, explains how his team used OpenAI to boost site traffic, domain rating and backlinks within just a few months…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Fintech valuations have fallen. Where do they go from here?

With the market having changed dramatically since the heyday of 2021’s venture funding boom, fintech valuations have largely shifted accordingly.

With only a few exceptions, the once most valuable companies operating in the fintech space have seen their valuations drop significantly, based on secondary share activity as analyzed by Notice.co, a company that has built a pricing tool for the private markets.

One of the starkest examples of declines lies in payments giant Stripe, which saw its funding valuation hit $95 billion in March 2021. The company’s secondary market valuation peaked at nearly $200 billion in January 2022 (!), according to Notice’s data, which understandably caused frustration among employees who wondered why the company didn’t go public at that time. But as of the time of this writing, its secondary market valuation has plunged by 73% to $52.5 billion…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
SpaceX Is Now Worth More Than Boeing and Raytheon

SpaceX is rocketing up the rankings of aerospace and defense companies. It’s the most valuable aerospace and defense stock in the Western World, topping even the likes of Boeing and Raytheon Technologies.

Thursday, CNBC reported that SpaceX valuation hit $150 billion, based on a secondary sale of stock at $81 a share. SpaceX didn’t return a request for comment about the sale.

Elon Musk’s space company that pioneered reusable rockets is still privately held, but SpaceX still has shares that can be traded with sales arranged by the company or on third-party platforms such as Rainmaker Securities… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Space Business: Vehicle Variables

The big movers in space are struggling to get new launch vehicles off the ground, delaying other orbital projects and boosting Elon Musk’s SpaceX as the industry leader.

United Launch Alliance said its much-anticipated new Vulcan rocket needs more work after missing out on a hoped-for May debut. The problem is with propellant tanks in the vehicle’s second stage, one of which exploded during a test in March. More reinforcement is required, which means a trip back to the factory for refitting, then more testing, and then back to the launch pad. ULA CEO Tory Bruno is still predicting the rocket will launch this year…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
FTX Halts Sale of Its $500 Million Stake in AI Startup Anthropic

Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX has abruptly halted the sale of one of its most sought-after assets: a stake in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic.

Perella Weinberg Partners, the boutique investment bank that acts as an adviser to FTX, informed bidders this month about the pause, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing confidential information.

The halt came after several months during which multiple potential buyers assessed private information about the Anthropic stake, the people said. Semafor reported earlier in June that FTX had been shopping its Anthropic holding with an expectation of fetching “nine figures.”

Privately-held Anthropic, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees, has become one of the hottest companies of the current AI boom. Anthropic said in May that it had raised $450 million to support the development of its AI bot, dubbed Claude.

Buyers in the secondary market for shares in private companies have been actively seeking opportunities to acquire stakes in Anthropic, including at a premium, according to Rainmaker Securities co-founder Glen Anderson…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
AI Frenzy Draws Hordes to Private Markets in Industry Gold Rush
  • Pre-IPO shares of AI and machine-learning startups in vogue

  • Investors are bidding up OpenAI and Anthropic, Rainmaker says

The buzz around artificial intelligence has investors snapping up shares of startups on alternative venues, looking to find the next wave of technology giants before they even go public.

AI and machine learning have remained the most in-demand sectors every month this year, accounting for 25% to 30% of investor interest, according to EquityZen Securities Inc., a marketplace for privately held shares. On Rainmaker Securities, a platform that facilitates secondary stock transactions for private businesses, investors are paying up for shares of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, startups that are seen as leading the pack in AI…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
US IPO Market Shows Signs of Life After Restaurant Chain Cava’s Winning Debut

The US market for initial public offerings looks like it’s finally coming back to life after 18 months of deathly quiet.

Shares of Cava Group Inc. nearly doubled in its trading debut on June 15 after the fast-casual restaurant chain’s breakthrough IPO was priced well above the initial range set by underwriters. While the stock price has slipped a bit from its early surge, it still remains up about 84%.

Now, a trio of companies are preparing to follow Cava’s lead and tap the public markets this week. All told, about $1.5 billion is expected to be raised in IPOs on US exchanges in June, marking the first consecutive months with more than $1 billion sold since last fall, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Everyone was watching Cava very closely, so that’s going to be a good starting point for the opening up of the IPO market for new companies,” said Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, which facilitates secondary transactions for private companies. “There are a lot of great companies that are private that have filed. The bar will still be high, but there’s clearly a lot of pent-up demand.”…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Cava Listing Heralds Potential IPO Market Rebound

Following a listing by restaurant group Cava, the American market is hungry for IPOs.

The fast casual restaurant chain went public via an initial public offering (IPO) last week, with its shares nearly doubling in its debut.

And as Bloomberg News reported Monday (June 26), three other companies are planning listings of their own this week, with $1.5 billion is expected to be raised in IPOs on U.S. exchanges overall this month.

This marks the first consecutive months with more than $1 billion sold since autumn of last year, the report said.

“Everyone was watching Cava very closely, so that’s going to be a good starting point for the opening up of the IPO market for new companies,” said Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, which handles secondary transactions for private companies…Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
CAVA’s IPO was a ‘break in the clouds’ for the icy IPO market, says one of its early investors. Will others follow?

Klein, a partner at venture capital firm Revolution, hopped on the phone with Term Sheet less than two hours after market close and right before he headed off to a celebratory dinner with CAVA’s management team in Hudson Yards. After all, there was a lot to celebrate. After what’s been an extraordinarily dry IPO market, CAVA’s blockbuster IPO—in which shares rose 99% from market open to close to nearly $44—the Washington, D.C.-based fast-casual restaurant’s debut on the New York Stock Exchange offered a much-needed respite to the startup ecosystem: a glimmer of hope that exits are still within reach, even for unprofitable companies.

“I don’t want to overstate it, but it felt like a real break in the clouds from the environment that we’ve been in for the last 18 months or so,” Klein says… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
How a SpaceX IPO Could End Musk's Uncomfortable Tesla-Twitter Dance

SpaceX is the most valuable space company in the world—and it might offer Elon Musk the key to unlocking his empire.

It's hard to feel pity for the world's second-richest person. Musk is estimated to be worth about $180 billion, the combined value of his stakes in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), SpaceX, Neuralink, the Boring Co., and Twitter, among other investments. The problem, though, is that all but Tesla are privately held, and therefore illiquid. When Musk needs money, his only option is to sell Tesla stock. That was the case from April to December 2022, when Musk was forced to sell some $23 billion in Tesla shares to keep Twitter afloat, one of the reasons the stock tumbled more than 50% during that period… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
For Top VCs, ByteDance’s Historic Windfall Remains A $220 Billion Mirage

It’s the biggest venture capital profit haul that no one wants to talk about.

ByteDance – the Chinese parent company of social media app TikTok – is the world’s most valuable startup. Even at a valuation of $220 billion, down from a peak of $500 billion in the secondary market in 2021, it’s not even close. (SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket company, slots in second at $140 billion.)

For its investors, some of whom backed the company when it was still valued in the millions, an eventual ByteDance public offering would mean billions, and even tens of billions of dollars, in profits, instantly vaulting their investments into the ranks of the top VC bets of all time… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
How much more money can SpaceX spend on Starship?

The brief flight of Starship, the world’s largest rocket, was fueled by methane and liquid oxygen, but the ultimate propellant for SpaceX’s ambitious new projects is money. That’s why it’s surprising that CEO Elon Musk said his company wouldn’t raise more capital, despite plans to spend about $2 billion improving the vehicle’s Raptor engines this year.

Musk’s comment during an April 29 Twitter conversation comes as the secondary market in SpaceX shares is weakening for the first time, according to Greg Martin, a managing director at Rainmaker Securities, a boutique investment bank that specializes in private companies. After ByteDance, the company that created TikTok, SpaceX is considered the most valuable venture-backed company.. Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
SpaceX Is Still Private, but That Doesn’t Mean Its Stock Isn’t Traded

Elon Musk's SpaceX is an impressive company, and an incredible story–maybe as impressive as Tesla.

And many investors would like a chance to own some SpaceX stock. Even though the company is privately held that is still possible. Interested investors might want to wait, though, as pricing could come down.

There are platforms for insiders and employees to trade shares of privately held companies. Glen Anderson runs one called Rainmaker Securities. "SpaceX, it's a name we've done a lot of trading in over the years," he says in an interview… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Finding Value in an Inefficient Market

The Less Sophisticated and Less Efficient Private Equity Secondary Market Presents an Interesting Opportunity for Equity Traders  

If history is an indicator, the best investments are made in the periods of market lows and economic pressure. This is particularly true with equities, where buying shares in high-value companies when valuations are lowest provides opportunity for maximum potential returns.  

Take for instance the financial crisis of 2008. At the bottom of the market, the investors who took large equity stakes in quality public companies at low entry points achieved outsized returns when the market recovered…  Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
IPO Market Shows Signs of Life Even as Recession Fears Persist

The global market for initial public offerings is showing signs of life as a rebound in the stock market has emboldened companies to test investor appetite for new listings, particularly in Asia. But a full-fledged recovery looks distant.

 

Roughly $25 billion worth of IPOs priced globally in March and April, nearly twice the amount seen in the first two months of the year when listings virtually ground to a halt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson
Deal-Seeking Bidders Line Up for Instacart’s Private Stock

For more than a year, investors have had little appetite for Instacart’s stock, available on the private market for tech shares. Now investors who may be hunting for bargains are starting to clamor for a piece of the grocery-delivery startup ahead of an expected initial public offering.

 

Over the past couple of months, investors who buy private company stock have increasingly looked to scoop up Instacart shares, Instacart shareholders and brokers who facilitate trades told The Information… Read Full Article

Ken Anderson